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☆ Trump says he wants huge tariffs if elected. That could send inflation spiking.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But research from the bipartisan Tax Foundation suggests otherwise, and says Trump's 2018 trade war was also economically damaging. The non-partisan Tax Foundation would beg to differ. Tax Foundation estimates that the tariffs then imposed have amounted to an $80 billion tax increase on Americans. Nobody else ever did anything on China," Trump explained. More tariffs under Trump could be poorly timed, as US monetary policy is already struggling to clamp down on current inflation levels.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump, Biden, Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Time Magazine, Foundation, Service, Time, Republican, Trump, Federal Reserve Locations: China, India, Brazil, United States, Beijing

☆ Markets will rebel if Trump or any president tries to control the Fed, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Markets would resist executive influence over the Federal Reserve, Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg TV. Inflation expectations would jump while the dollar would tank, the Harvard professor said. Donald Trump allies have reportedly been brainstorming ways for him to exert more influence over the Fed, if elected. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementPolitical attempts to influence the Federal Reserve won't go over well with markets, Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff said.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, Donald Trump, —, Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Service, Reserve, Business

☆ Unrealistic for US Fed to lower interest rates to 2.5% in this economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Completely unrealistic' for the Fed to lower interest rates to 2.5% in this economy: Kenneth RogoffKenneth Rogoff of Harvard University explains why U.S. interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Fed, Harvard University

☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would be 'recessionary' and could spark a resurgence in inflation, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's trade policies would be "recessionary" and could make inflation worse, according to Kenneth Rogoff. The Harvard economist pointed to Trump's proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports would have "recessionary" effects on the US economy and could end up sending inflation higher again, according to top economist Kenneth Rogoff. Rogoff said that Trump's proposed policies and Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act make them both the "most protectionist" presidential candidates the US has seen in a while, Rogoff said to Bloomberg on Wednesday. That could hamper economic growth and stoke inflation, making Trump one of the biggest threats to the global economy, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, —, Donald Trump's, Rogoff, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini, Biden, Donald Trump, overspending Organizations: Harvard, Bloomberg, Service, International Monetary, stoke, Trump, Bank of America, Project Syndicate Locations: China, stoke, Washington, Japan

☆ Cash is no longer king. So why are we still printing so much?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

An economics expert tells BI that cash still remains crucial for "certain segments of consumers." AdvertisementWhen it comes to how Americans prefer to spend their money, cash is actually not king. That represents a consistent decline in cash payments since the pandemic in 2020, which saw many shifts in consumer behavior, including an acceleration of online shopping. The following year, the study showed that cash made up 19% of payments and has not recovered since. Cash is still king of some thingsEconomics experts say that despite increasing reliance on cards, cash remains resilient and an important payment method for many consumers.

Persons: —, Cash, Christopher Bechler, Bechler, Benjamin, Sage Handley, Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, . Federal, University of Notre Dame Mendoza College of Business, Business, Association for Consumer Research, Federal, Street Journal, Harvard University

☆ A Goldilocks economy could be coming, but a key piece of the puzzle remains elusive
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.

Persons: —, hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London

☆ There's little reason to be optimistic about a soft landing this year as the 'runway is in an earthquake zone,' Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Growing hope for an economic soft landing is misplaced, economist Ken Rogoff wrote this week. The Harvard economist sees the runway for the economy in an "earthquake zone" in 2024. AdvertisementThere's little reason to be optimistic about a soft-landing, as the economy is set to land in an "earthquake zone" in 2024, according to top economist Ken Rogoff. Advertisement"Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism. The US also faces trouble as the national debt continues to surge and interest rates look poised to stay higher-for-longer.

Persons: Ken Rogoff, —, Doom, Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, Service, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Fed, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: China, Europe, Ukraine, Russia

☆ The Chinese property market may look like it's imploding. But one expert doesn't think it'll cause a financial crisis — and there may even be a bright spot.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's property troubles may slow the economy down, Nicholas Lardy, a China economy expert, told CNN. However, the issues will not create a financial crisis, he added. Even so, one Chinese economy expert thinks the crisis is unlikely to spill over into the broader economy. Advertisement Advertisement Watch: Ken Rogoff on the next financial crisis and the future of bitcoinChina's property sector has been gripped in a crisis since 2021 when property giant Evergrande ran into a liquidity crisis. The market was so hot that Chinese developers were taking on massive borrowings to build apartments ahead of demand.

Persons: Nicholas Lardy, it's, Ken Rogoff, Evergrande, Lardy, Lina Batarags Organizations: CNN, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

☆ Opinion | How Do We Manage China’s Decline?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Bret Stephens | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Optimists think the crisis won’t affect Western countries too badly because their exports to China account for a small share of their output. Real estate and its related sectors account for nearly 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product, according to a 2020 paper by the economists Ken Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang. Last month Donald Trump described the rule of China’s president, Xi Jinping, as “smart, brilliant, everything perfect.” The truth is closer to the opposite. China’s richest people have also left the country in increasing numbers during Xi’s tenure — a good indication of where they think their opportunities do and do not lie. President Biden was off the cuff but on the mark this month when he said of China’s leaders that “when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.” In other words, as China’s economic fortunes sink, the risks to Taiwan grow.

Persons: don’t, Optimists, Ken Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang, Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Xi, “, ”, Xi’s, Biden Locations: China, Taiwan, South China, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Beijing, Taiwan Strait

☆ China's growth model is no longer going to deliver high growth, says Harvard's Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's growth model is no longer going to deliver high growth, says Harvard's Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Harvard economics professor Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard economics professor Ken RogoffKen Rogoff, Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss China's economic crisis, why the 'debt supercycle' that came for the U.S. and Europe after the 2008 financial crisis could be knocking on China's door as it grapples with a brewing property crisis and growth slowdown, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, U.S Locations: Harvard, Europe

☆ China's economic troubles are a result of the post-2008 'debt supercycle' finally coming back to bite it, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China is being hit by a "debt supercycle" that began with the 2008 financial crisis, Kenneth Rogoff said. While Beijing has a strong record of containing economic fires, today's crisis of slowing growth and high debt is unprecedented, he added. "The debt supercycle may have lasted longer than initially expected, perhaps because of the pandemic. But it was a critical piece of the story, and now, as China's economy falters, it is the best explanation for what might come next," he later added. Trouble for China's economy could stretch on over the long-term as it faces poor growth prospects, experts have warned.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, Rogoff Organizations: Service, Project Syndicate, Harvard Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, –, Europe, Beijing

☆ The Harvard economics PhD whiz who is teaching generative AI to invest for everyone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Kiley Lambert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Szilagyi has the record for the fastest-ever Harvard Economics Ph.D. (2.5 years), studying under Ken Rogoff. In addition to his economics Ph.D., Szilagyi holds BA and MA degrees in mathematics and economics from Yale. Szilagyi: Toggle is a generative AI startup that sits squarely at the intersection of finance and artificial intelligence. Toggle AI was really born from observing the ever-mounting flow of financial data that we needed to track. Thanks to his support, Toggle AI took off with a mission to provide every investor and advisor with powerful AI tools in an easy-to-navigate, chat interface.

Persons: Jan Szilagyi, Szilagyi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Lombard Odier, Ken Rogoff, Giuseppe Sette, Druckenmiller Organizations: Duquesne Capital, Lombard, Harvard, Yale, CNBC, Summit, Microsoft, Duquesne Locations: Szilagyi, Lombard

☆ Harvard professor Ken Rogoff: I think real interest rates are going to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHarvard professor Ken Rogoff: I think real interest rates are going to stay highHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff Organizations: Harvard

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harvard professor Ken RogoffHarvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, why a last minute deal does not solve the underlying political problem, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ken Rogoff

☆ Inflation’s real benefits beat theoretical costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Yet economic theory has a remarkably hard time identifying the social costs imposed by a rising price level. A more serious charge is the uncertainty that rising prices introduce into financial planning. If the theoretical costs of inflation are elusive, the potential advantages it has to offer are more concrete. U.S. house prices, meanwhile, peaked last year at a full 45% higher in real terms than when Rogoff made his plea. In the end, the practical benefits of inflation will trump its theoretical costs.

☆ Analysis: American living standards are on the line in the debt ceiling drama
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Inside the Beltway, jockeying over raising the debt ceiling has become a partisan ritual to gain political points. But marching toward a debt ceiling default puts American living standards on the line. For most of that time, the debt ceiling was raised with little fuss, until 2011 brought the debt ceiling into a new dangerous realm of political brinksmanship. Deciding later not to pay the bills by not raising the debt ceiling is not sound fiscal policy. Roger Ferguson, economist and former vice chair of the Fed, said the debt ceiling is out of date.

☆ Thinking of buying tech stocks? Here's how to manage risk, according to a fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tech stocks were in bear territory for much of last year, but have been a bright spot so far in 2023 despite the uncertainty. Ben Rogoff, a portfolio manager at Polar Capital with 25 years of investing experience, has a strategy for mitigating risk when investing in growth stocks such as tech. A call option is a contract to buy a stock at a certain price at a set time in the future. The option value increases if the stock price rises above that set price. Other markets for tech Rogoff said although the U.S. is the dominant market for technology, he's also looking elsewhere.

☆ This tech company is the 'best possible beneficiary' of A.I., says fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

But there's another tech giant that looks likely to be the "best possible beneficiary," according to Ben Rogoff, a portfolio manager at Polar Capital with 25 years of investing experience. That's Apple , Rogoff told CNBC Pro Talks last week. Rogoff noted that Apple is in both the devices market — with its Apple Watch, phones and tablets — and in content — via its app store. Besides Apple, Rogoff told CNBC Pro Talks that four other large-cap stocks are driving some of the biggest and most tangible advancements in artificial intelligence. "It's still very early, but ChatGPT described as the iPhone moment for the artificial intelligence technology industry feels about right to us."

☆ Want to invest in the A.I. boom? Veteran tech fund manager names 4 stocks to own
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic fantasy but closer to a reality predicted to transform many industries. "It's still very early, but ChatGPT described as the iPhone moment for the artificial intelligence technology industry feels about right to us." The tech fund manager also told CNBC's Pro Talks that four large-cap stocks were driving some of the biggest and most tangible advancements in artificial intelligence. Microsoft Microsoft could be one of the top options for investors looking to invest in artificial intelligence, according to Rogoff, lead manager of Polar Capital Technology Trust plc. The tech fund manager pointed to the company's 90% market share in search, where it can deploy its own ChatGPT-like language model.

☆ CNBC Pro Talks: Meet a fund manager who bet on A.I. before most investors knew what it was
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 is up more than 8% this year led by a basket of mega-cap stocks, including chip stock Nvidia , which is up by around 90%. Both stocks are among Polar Capital Technology Trust's top 10 holdings. The fund manager also discussed the impact of a recession on FAANG stocks, which have been the primary drivers of the market rally this year. He joined Polar Capital in 2003. He's the lead manager of the Polar Capital Technology Trust, and fund manager of the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund and the Automation and Artificial Intelligence Fund.

☆ CNBC Pro Talks: Meet a fund manager who bet on A.I. five years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The investment manager set up a fund focused on artificial intelligence a full 5 years ago — well before AI was on every investor's lips. He's the lead manager of the Polar Capital Technology Trust, and fund manager of the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund and the Automation and Artificial Intelligence Fund. The funds' top holdings include chip giants as well as software and other tech stocks such as Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices , Microsoft and Apple . He's the lead manager of the Polar Capital Technology Trust, and fund manager of the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund and the Automation and Artificial Intelligence Fund. The funds' top holdings include chip giants as well as software and other tech stocks such as Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices , Microsoft and Apple .

☆ Recessions, bank failures, and stagnant stock returns - experts see a new, difficult era dawning for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment. Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. That's the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB's collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive. Some experts have argued that SVB's collapse was due to the bank's uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates.

☆ Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, and what to know about the financial turmoil — and how one company is working to boost the number of women on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The program collaborates with UPenn's Wharton business school, and it teaches college women the fundamentals of markets, portfolio management, and finance. Katherine Jollon Colsher, President and CEO, Girls Who Invest Girls Who InvestKatherine Jollon Colsher is the chief executive officer and president of Girls Who Invest, a nonprofit that aims to help women enter asset management and other careers across Wall Street. Katherine Jollon Colsher: We work exclusively in the buy side, and we do focus exclusively on placing women in internships and frontline investing roles to advance more women portfolio managers. With that, our vision is for 30% of the world's investable capital to be managed by women by 2030. Shares of the German bank tumbled on Friday, as the cost of credit default swaps linked to its bonds shot higher.

☆ The current banking crisis is a 'worldwide phenomenon' that started long before SVB failed, Harvard professor and former IMF economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chaos in the banking sector was a long time coming, according to a former IMF chief economist. The crisis was, in part, caused by banks betting on a prolonged period of ultra-low rates, Kenneth Rogoff said. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Rogoff, a leading scholar of financial crises, said chaos ensued after a number of years of ultra-low interest rates. "I didn't know it would [start] in the US banking sector," he said, adding that issues could've taken place in Japan or Italy before SVB was seized by regulators.

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